Changing geopolitical realities demand that Pakistan should broaden its foreign policy base.
March 22, 2010, Axis of Logic - Pakistan and the former Soviet Union have followed a roller coaster model in their relations, oscillating between ‘cordial’ to ‘hostile’, for several decades before the latter collapsed. They both realized the need for close bilateral relations and half-heartedly worked in that direction too. They exchanged visits at the highest level of the government, vowed to make their relations meaningful and productive, agreed to cooperate in regional matters, yet they were unable to seriously move in this direction. They found their respective geopolitical interests too divergent and alliances too overpowering to let them fulfill their agenda and come any closer. Indo-Russian Relations Pakistan’s relationship with the Soviet Union was all along defined by Indo-Russian relations, the Soviet darling at that time. India’s aggressive posture against Pakistan from the very beginning and a close military and economic collaboration with the Soviet Union which enabled it to increase the size and strength of its conventional forces to four times that of Pakistan became a source of concern for a weaker Pakistan. This compelled Pakistan to rely on US protection and military assistance and even led it into joining the American-led Cold War era defence pacts – SEATO & CENTO, which essentially served Western interests of containment of communist Russia and China. That Pakistan got in the bargain, only a false sense of security, is another matter. When Pakistan invoked the Mutual Defence Treaty between Pakistan and the US, seeking intervention on Pakistan’s behalf after India attacked Pakistan across the international border in 1965, Islamabad was told that the US State Department was unable to find the file of such a treaty. Pakistan also became wary of the indirect Soviet role in strengthening Indian hands when the latter proceeded to break up Pakistan. Unprovoked Indian invasion of East Pakistan occurred immediately after the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship was signed in August 1971, followed by massive arms sales to India on concessional terms, amounting to billions of dollars. Pakistan and the defeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan The lowest point in Pak-Soviet relationship was reached when Pakistan was drawn into the Afghan armed struggle against the invading Soviet forces. Soviet occupation of Afghanistan threatened to destabilize the region and increased Pakistan insecurity; this was perceived to be a part of Soviet strategy - to eventually reach the Indian Ocean, cutting through Balochistan. Pakistan considered it strategically important to ensure that the Soviet forces were rolled back and welcomed the US support in this effort. The U.S. in turn, saw in this an opportunity to avenge its humiliation of Vietnam with the Soviet Union. The Soviets withdrew, but Pakistan’s role remained ‘unforgivable’ on account of its ultimate consequences. Meanwhile, Washington had also played its part in drawing a wedge between Pakistan and the Soviet Union. In one instance, the clandestine US launch of U-2 spy plane in 1960 using the Pakistan Air Force facilities at Peshawar without Pakistan’s knowledge or consent and its downing by the Russians drew an angry response from Prime Minister Nikita Khrushchev, who threatened to bomb Badaber out of existence, a base leased out to the Americans in Peshawar. Time to form new relations in a changing world But now some thirty years after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and some twenty years after the Soviet collapse the world has changed, and continues to change dramatically. Today’s international political and geopolitical landscape is fundamentally different from that of the second half of the twentieth century. Both Russia which rose on the ashes of the Soviet Union, and Pakistan which deals with conspiracies to destabilize it, face new realities, global, regional and domestic. It is time for both of them to overlook the past, mend fences and work together for a better future. Russia poised to move forward: Having emerged as a strong successor to Soviet Union, the Russian Federation inherited the super-power mantle and challenges the uni-polarity of the world order that the US imposed in 1990. The US and Europe are once again beginning to take Russia seriously and defer to its position on global issues, particularly those that affect it one way or the other. It is working to regain its sphere of influence in Central Asia and is strengthening Shanghai Cooperation Organization in tandem with China, both of whom have made a common cause of stemming the tide of American expansionism in the region. There are indications that Russia, in view of Afghanistan’s importance for Central Asia – its “backyard”, will soon shun its inaction in favor of an active role in its future dispensation, as the Americans get ready to leave. Importantly, Russia is seeking export markets, collaborative arrangements and new allies in Central, South West and South Asia to edge the US out from this region. With India having moved closer to the US camp, Russia enjoys a greater degree of freedom to enter into alliances, which India could have earlier objected to. While Russia was picking up its pieces in the 90s, India and the US began their flirtation. India had its eyes on availing western investment and technology, on benefiting from collaboration in fields such as the civilian nuclear technology and on speedily attaining its regional power status by modernizing its aging and outdated Soviet era war machine, replacing it with more advanced Western military equipment. The US was interested to gain a foothold in the vast Indian market and create an ally in strategically important South Asia with the aim to contain Russia and China. Pakistan free to form new relationships: At Pakistan’s end the situation changed too. Unlike its complete dependence on the US for a security umbrella until the 1980s, it now enjoys a nuclear-based security environment that keeps the Indian belligerency in check. It is reaching self sufficiency in defence production, the most recent being the multi-role aircraft produced with Chinese collaboration. This gives Pakistan enough independence and room to maneuver in the area of foreign policy, except for its poor economic performance and dependence on the US assistance that remains a limiting factor and needs urgent attention. When players on the world stage, including India, have found it necessary to redefine their priorities in keeping with their changing national interests and are realigning themselves into new security and trade arrangements, there is no reason why Pakistan should not take a fresh look at its allegiance to the US, which has neither served it well in the past nor does it hold any promise for the future. It is time for Pakistan to move towards a balanced and broad based foreign policy that enables it to include Russia among partners in progress. Foundation stones already laid for bilateral relations Both Russia and Pakistan need to build on their latent desire to establish good bilateral relations, despite major and minor differences and irritants of the past. Pakistani leaders from Ayub Khan to Musharraf and Soviet and Russian leaders from Alexei Kosygin to Putin have always felt the need to do so. In fact, a great deal has already been accomplished by their initiatives from time to time. The Soviet mediation between India and Pakistan after 1965 war led to the signing of Tashkent Declaration. The Soviets rendered valuable assistance in the oil and gas sector, supply of agricultural machinery and helicopters and construction of power stations. The landmark project of Pakistan Steel Mills is a reminder of the joint effort in making Pakistan independent in steel production. Pakistan was the first state to recognize Russia as the successor of the USSR. Islamabad assisted Russia in getting an observer status at the OIC and Moscow reciprocated by helping Pakistan in gaining similar status at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. But despite this collaboration and cooperation within the framework of multilateral organizations such as the UN, SCO and OIC, the full potential of bilateral relationship is yet to be realized. Islamabad has so far shied away from coming too close to Moscow for fear of upsetting Washington. There is need for this situation to change. Washington’s stranglehold over Islamabad must give way to independence in policy making, both domestic and foreign, before the present Pakistan Peoples Party government can claim to be truly responsive to Pakistan’s interests. It is in Pakistan’s strategic interest to initiate politico-military outreach towards other global power centers, including Russia, and work with the Sino-Russian strategic nexus. A window of opportunity for Pakistan’s foreign policy to move towards independence is now opening as the US has begun to lean on Pakistan for help in reaching a deal with the Taliban and implementing its exit strategy. First steps taken toward new, positive relations Russia has indicated its readiness to open doors, even for military cooperation. On the heels of meeting between Russian President Midvale and Pakistani President Zardari during the SCO conference last June, came General Kayani’s visit to Moscow that apparently explored military cooperation. This signals a policy shift and indicates that Pakistan is not ruling out such an arrangement with Russia in the future. The Russian Duma has established a Group of Friendship with Pakistan - a measure that should now be reciprocated by Pakistan’s National Assembly. The Inter-governmental Commission on Trade and Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation needs to be made functional and trade and investment potential explored. Russia is in a position to help in the energy and power sector, which is critically important for Pakistan. The People: letting go of old perceptions and a new embrace There has existed a gap between the Russian and the Pakistani people. A prolonged and extensive American propaganda against communism over several decades, reinforced by the negative perception created during the Soviet misadventure in Afghanistan, has played a role. Aggressive and secretive, the Soviet Union came to be perceived as an evil empire whose bear hug was feared to be a bone breaker. But now with Soviet Union no more, communism having faded out, glasnost encouraging the Russian society to open up and Russia reshaping its economic and foreign policies to meet the challenges of new millennium, Pakistanis need to see Russia in a positive light. Soviet era perceptions can change with increased people to people contacts, cultural and academic exchanges and scholarships and student exchange programs that need to be facilitated by both sides. Pursued jointly and diligently, a new era of friendship and cooperation is not difficult to begin.
March 22, 2010, Axis of Logic - Pakistan and the former Soviet Union have followed a roller coaster model in their relations, oscillating between ‘cordial’ to ‘hostile’, for several decades before the latter collapsed. They both realized the need for close bilateral relations and half-heartedly worked in that direction too. They exchanged visits at the highest level of the government, vowed to make their relations meaningful and productive, agreed to cooperate in regional matters, yet they were unable to seriously move in this direction. They found their respective geopolitical interests too divergent and alliances too overpowering to let them fulfill their agenda and come any closer. Indo-Russian Relations Pakistan’s relationship with the Soviet Union was all along defined by Indo-Russian relations, the Soviet darling at that time. India’s aggressive posture against Pakistan from the very beginning and a close military and economic collaboration with the Soviet Union which enabled it to increase the size and strength of its conventional forces to four times that of Pakistan became a source of concern for a weaker Pakistan. This compelled Pakistan to rely on US protection and military assistance and even led it into joining the American-led Cold War era defence pacts – SEATO & CENTO, which essentially served Western interests of containment of communist Russia and China. That Pakistan got in the bargain, only a false sense of security, is another matter. When Pakistan invoked the Mutual Defence Treaty between Pakistan and the US, seeking intervention on Pakistan’s behalf after India attacked Pakistan across the international border in 1965, Islamabad was told that the US State Department was unable to find the file of such a treaty. Pakistan also became wary of the indirect Soviet role in strengthening Indian hands when the latter proceeded to break up Pakistan. Unprovoked Indian invasion of East Pakistan occurred immediately after the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship was signed in August 1971, followed by massive arms sales to India on concessional terms, amounting to billions of dollars. Pakistan and the defeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan The lowest point in Pak-Soviet relationship was reached when Pakistan was drawn into the Afghan armed struggle against the invading Soviet forces. Soviet occupation of Afghanistan threatened to destabilize the region and increased Pakistan insecurity; this was perceived to be a part of Soviet strategy - to eventually reach the Indian Ocean, cutting through Balochistan. Pakistan considered it strategically important to ensure that the Soviet forces were rolled back and welcomed the US support in this effort. The U.S. in turn, saw in this an opportunity to avenge its humiliation of Vietnam with the Soviet Union. The Soviets withdrew, but Pakistan’s role remained ‘unforgivable’ on account of its ultimate consequences. Meanwhile, Washington had also played its part in drawing a wedge between Pakistan and the Soviet Union. In one instance, the clandestine US launch of U-2 spy plane in 1960 using the Pakistan Air Force facilities at Peshawar without Pakistan’s knowledge or consent and its downing by the Russians drew an angry response from Prime Minister Nikita Khrushchev, who threatened to bomb Badaber out of existence, a base leased out to the Americans in Peshawar. Time to form new relations in a changing world But now some thirty years after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and some twenty years after the Soviet collapse the world has changed, and continues to change dramatically. Today’s international political and geopolitical landscape is fundamentally different from that of the second half of the twentieth century. Both Russia which rose on the ashes of the Soviet Union, and Pakistan which deals with conspiracies to destabilize it, face new realities, global, regional and domestic. It is time for both of them to overlook the past, mend fences and work together for a better future. Russia poised to move forward: Having emerged as a strong successor to Soviet Union, the Russian Federation inherited the super-power mantle and challenges the uni-polarity of the world order that the US imposed in 1990. The US and Europe are once again beginning to take Russia seriously and defer to its position on global issues, particularly those that affect it one way or the other. It is working to regain its sphere of influence in Central Asia and is strengthening Shanghai Cooperation Organization in tandem with China, both of whom have made a common cause of stemming the tide of American expansionism in the region. There are indications that Russia, in view of Afghanistan’s importance for Central Asia – its “backyard”, will soon shun its inaction in favor of an active role in its future dispensation, as the Americans get ready to leave. Importantly, Russia is seeking export markets, collaborative arrangements and new allies in Central, South West and South Asia to edge the US out from this region. With India having moved closer to the US camp, Russia enjoys a greater degree of freedom to enter into alliances, which India could have earlier objected to. While Russia was picking up its pieces in the 90s, India and the US began their flirtation. India had its eyes on availing western investment and technology, on benefiting from collaboration in fields such as the civilian nuclear technology and on speedily attaining its regional power status by modernizing its aging and outdated Soviet era war machine, replacing it with more advanced Western military equipment. The US was interested to gain a foothold in the vast Indian market and create an ally in strategically important South Asia with the aim to contain Russia and China. Pakistan free to form new relationships: At Pakistan’s end the situation changed too. Unlike its complete dependence on the US for a security umbrella until the 1980s, it now enjoys a nuclear-based security environment that keeps the Indian belligerency in check. It is reaching self sufficiency in defence production, the most recent being the multi-role aircraft produced with Chinese collaboration. This gives Pakistan enough independence and room to maneuver in the area of foreign policy, except for its poor economic performance and dependence on the US assistance that remains a limiting factor and needs urgent attention. When players on the world stage, including India, have found it necessary to redefine their priorities in keeping with their changing national interests and are realigning themselves into new security and trade arrangements, there is no reason why Pakistan should not take a fresh look at its allegiance to the US, which has neither served it well in the past nor does it hold any promise for the future. It is time for Pakistan to move towards a balanced and broad based foreign policy that enables it to include Russia among partners in progress. Foundation stones already laid for bilateral relations Both Russia and Pakistan need to build on their latent desire to establish good bilateral relations, despite major and minor differences and irritants of the past. Pakistani leaders from Ayub Khan to Musharraf and Soviet and Russian leaders from Alexei Kosygin to Putin have always felt the need to do so. In fact, a great deal has already been accomplished by their initiatives from time to time. The Soviet mediation between India and Pakistan after 1965 war led to the signing of Tashkent Declaration. The Soviets rendered valuable assistance in the oil and gas sector, supply of agricultural machinery and helicopters and construction of power stations. The landmark project of Pakistan Steel Mills is a reminder of the joint effort in making Pakistan independent in steel production. Pakistan was the first state to recognize Russia as the successor of the USSR. Islamabad assisted Russia in getting an observer status at the OIC and Moscow reciprocated by helping Pakistan in gaining similar status at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. But despite this collaboration and cooperation within the framework of multilateral organizations such as the UN, SCO and OIC, the full potential of bilateral relationship is yet to be realized. Islamabad has so far shied away from coming too close to Moscow for fear of upsetting Washington. There is need for this situation to change. Washington’s stranglehold over Islamabad must give way to independence in policy making, both domestic and foreign, before the present Pakistan Peoples Party government can claim to be truly responsive to Pakistan’s interests. It is in Pakistan’s strategic interest to initiate politico-military outreach towards other global power centers, including Russia, and work with the Sino-Russian strategic nexus. A window of opportunity for Pakistan’s foreign policy to move towards independence is now opening as the US has begun to lean on Pakistan for help in reaching a deal with the Taliban and implementing its exit strategy. First steps taken toward new, positive relations Russia has indicated its readiness to open doors, even for military cooperation. On the heels of meeting between Russian President Midvale and Pakistani President Zardari during the SCO conference last June, came General Kayani’s visit to Moscow that apparently explored military cooperation. This signals a policy shift and indicates that Pakistan is not ruling out such an arrangement with Russia in the future. The Russian Duma has established a Group of Friendship with Pakistan - a measure that should now be reciprocated by Pakistan’s National Assembly. The Inter-governmental Commission on Trade and Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation needs to be made functional and trade and investment potential explored. Russia is in a position to help in the energy and power sector, which is critically important for Pakistan. The People: letting go of old perceptions and a new embrace There has existed a gap between the Russian and the Pakistani people. A prolonged and extensive American propaganda against communism over several decades, reinforced by the negative perception created during the Soviet misadventure in Afghanistan, has played a role. Aggressive and secretive, the Soviet Union came to be perceived as an evil empire whose bear hug was feared to be a bone breaker. But now with Soviet Union no more, communism having faded out, glasnost encouraging the Russian society to open up and Russia reshaping its economic and foreign policies to meet the challenges of new millennium, Pakistanis need to see Russia in a positive light. Soviet era perceptions can change with increased people to people contacts, cultural and academic exchanges and scholarships and student exchange programs that need to be facilitated by both sides. Pursued jointly and diligently, a new era of friendship and cooperation is not difficult to begin.
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